WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. import prices unexpectedly fell in March, pulled down by decreasing costs for energy products, but the trend is unlikely to be sustained amid an escalation in trade tensions.
Import prices dipped 0.1% last month after a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in February, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast import prices, which exclude tariffs, unchanged following a previously reported 0.4% increase in February.
In the 12 months through March, import prices advanced 0.9%.
The report joined weak consumer and producer price data in suggesting that inflation was subsiding before President Donald Trump’s broad tariffs on imports came into effect. The import duties, which have triggered a damaging trade war with China and plunged financial markets into turmoil, have stoked fears of high inflation and tepid growth or even a recession.
Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March 18-19 meeting published last week showed policymakers were nearly unanimous that the economy faced risks of simultaneously higher inflation and slower growth, commonly referred to as stagflation.
Financial markets expect the U.S. central bank to resume cutting interest rates in June after pausing in January, and reduce its policy rate by 100 basis points this year.
The Fed’s benchmark overnight interest rate is currently in the 4.25%-4.50% range.
Imported fuel prices declined 2.3% in March after increasing 1.6% in February. Food prices edged up 0.1% after being unchanged in the prior month. Excluding fuels and food, import prices gained 0.1% for a second straight month. In the 12 months through March, the so-called core import prices rose 1.1%.
Further increases are likely as the dollar weakens against the currencies of the United States’ main trade partners.
The trade-weighted dollar is down by about 2.6% so far this year, with most of the depreciation in March and the first few weeks of April as the White House doubled down on tariffs.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
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