By Juliette Jabkhiro and Elizabeth Pineau
PARIS (Reuters) – Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right National Rally (RN) party, will on Monday learn her fate in an embezzlement trial that could upend French politics if she is barred from running in the 2027 presidential election.
A potentially seismic few days in French politics lie ahead. How did we get here? And what is at stake?
WHAT IS LE PEN ACCUSED OF?
Le Pen, the RN and some two dozen party figures are accused by prosecutors of diverting over 3 million euros ($3.27 million) of European Parliament funds to pay staff working for the party in France.
The defendants say the money was used legitimately and that the allegations incorporate too narrow a definition of what a parliamentary assistant does.
WHY DOES THE TRIAL THREATEN LE PEN’S PRESIDENTIAL HOPES?
Le Pen may be cleared, which would further bolster a far-right leader whose successful shift toward the mainstream has made the RN the biggest single party in parliament thanks to support from younger and blue-collar voters.
A guilty verdict, on the other hand, would deliver a hammer blow to Le Pen, a three-time presidential contender who has said the 2027 vote will be her final tilt at top office. Polls show her to be a frontrunner in the race.
Prosecutors asked judges to impose an immediate five-year ban on Le Pen regardless of any appeal, via a so-called “provisional execution” measure.
Typically in most cases in France, sentences are not applied until any appeals process has run its course. However, if judges apply a provisional execution, the sentence begins immediately.
A provisional execution ban would not see Le Pen removed from her seat in parliament until her mandate ends, though it would prevent her from running in any fresh electoral contest. A five-year provisional execution ban would block her 2027 run.
Le Pen might get a last-minute reprieve from France’s Constitutional Council. In a separate decision due on Friday, it will rule on the legality of barring locally elected officials from office with immediate effect even if there is an appeal. The framing of the ruling may impact Le Pen’s case.
WHAT WAS THE REACTION TO THE PROSECUTORS’ REQUEST?
Le Pen has accused the prosecutors of seeking her “political death”, arguing the provisional execution request was “completely disproportionate”. She and her allies allege a witch-hunt to keep the RN out of power, echoing claims made by U.S. President Donald Trump over his legal woes.
It is not just Le Pen and her allies who have expressed concern over what they see as judicial overreach.
Prime Minister Francois Bayrou and Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin, as well as some left-wing rivals, have signalled discomfort with judges – rather than voters – deciding who can run for office, underlining a backlash against “lawfare”.
That has led to the prosecutors and a judge receiving online death threats, Reuters reported, part of a growing international blowback over perceived judicial efforts to police politics.
WOULD A CONVICTION KILL LE PEN’S PRESIDENTIAL HOPES?
Not necessarily. The judges are under no obligation to follow the prosecutors’ request. They could decide to ignore the provisional execution or apply it for a shorter time period, say one or two years, that would still allow her to run in 2027.
If Le Pen gets an immediate five-year ban, her best hope of running will rest on the sentence being overturned on appeal before the 2027 election. The appeals process in France can take months or even years.
WHAT WILL THE RN DO IF LE PEN IS BARRED?
RN leaders have said they do not expect Le Pen to be barred. But if she is, they say 29-year-old party president Jordan Bardella will be their 2027 candidate.
(Reporting by Juliette Jabkhiro and Elizabeth Pineau; writing by Gabriel Stargardter; editing by Richard Lough and Mark Heinrich)
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