By Hernan Nessi
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentina’s monthly inflation rate likely hit its lowest level since libertarian President Javier Milei came to power in late 2023, ushering in painful austerity measures, a Reuters poll of analysts showed ahead of data due on Thursday.
The consumer price index (CPI) likely rose 2.3% in the first month of 2025, according to the median estimate from 25 analysts polled by Reuters. If achieved, that would be down from 2.7% in December and mark the slowest monthly rise since the middle of 2020.
Argentina, a major grains exporter and budding energy producer, has been fighting triple-digit inflation in recent years, which gave the South American country the dubious crown of having the world’s highest annual inflation rate.
That annual rate neared 300% early last year but has come down since, ending 2024 at a still high 118%. Monthly inflation that peaked around 25% has been between 2% and 3% since October.
“Inflation in January will be 2.3%, consolidating the downward trend observed during 2024,” said Argentine economic consultancy Eco Go, citing a calm month at the start of the year and slow rises in utilities prices.
Analyst estimates ranged from a minimum monthly rise of 1.9% to a maximum 2.8% for the first month of the year.
Bringing down inflation is key for Milei’s government, which wants to scrap capital controls that hurt business and investment. It wants inflation to stay below 2% to allow it to end the controls, though analysts remain wary of when that might happen.
“We expect inflation to remain in line or slightly higher than what was recorded in January, although the downward trend will continue throughout the year, possibly breaking the 2% barrier in the second half of the year,” Eco Go added.
Eugenio Marí, chief economist at the Fundación Libertad y Progreso, was more bullish, saying inflation in February could slide to 1.7% with the controlled currency devaluation guided by a “crawling peg” slowing to 1% per month from twice that before.
“February will be the month of the crawling-peg, which will help to slow down tradable prices; however, the key will be that the rest of the monetary policy must be consistent with the peso depreciating at that speed,” said Marí.
(Reporting by Hernan Nessi; Editing by Adam Jourdan and Hugh Lawson)
Comments