(Reuters) -As markets gear up for the home stretch of an eventful year, key data in the U.S. and in Japan is due, while the week is set to be still dominated by Washington’s trade measures as policymakers from India to Africa grappled with the fallout.
Here’s all you need to know about the week ahead in global markets from Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, Jaspreet Kalra in Mumbai, Duncan Miriri in Nairobi and Marc Jones in London.
1/THE END IS NEAR
The final leg of what’s been a remarkable year for markets – and everyone else for that matter – is nigh.
Traders enter the last quarter with a semi-warning from Fed chief Jerome Powell about high stock market valuations ringing their ears, but with rates expected to start dropping again soon, is anyone going to pay any notice?
After another 7% rise in the third quarter, world stocks are now up close to 17%, or $15 trillion in hard cash terms, in 2025, although gold and Chinese tech remain the biggest winners, both adding almost 40%.
The next few months also have some key events coming up. The Fed is expected to move again, China holds its plenum gathering of top party leaders next month, U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping are expected to get together at some point and there are IMF World Bank meetings and a UN Climate Summit to look forward to, too.
2/JOBS DATA NEXT – SUPPOSEDLY
U.S. jobs data is due on October 3, and – following a number of downbeat releases – is expected to show September non-farm payrolls increased by 39,000, with the unemployment rate at 4.3%, according to a Reuters poll.
The numbers are one piece of key data ahead of the end-October Fed meeting, after policymakers delivered their first 2025 rate cut earlier in September.
Expectations are high for another one, but a hot jobs number could scuttle that, while a negative figure might spark fears that the world’s biggest economy is in more significant trouble.
Of course, that’s if the jobs data arrives at all.
The U.S. federal government could be heading for a partial shutdown, should congressional Democrats and Republicans fail to agree on how to fund the government in the coming days, raising concerns data will not be released as scheduled.
3/A POLICY SIGNPOST
Early October could be pivotal for the path of Bank of Japan policy.
Wednesday brings the Tankan survey of corporate sentiment, a closely watched economic indicator that has garnered additional attention after policy board member Junko Nakagawa called September’s edition “extremely important” in a speech last month.
Markets are already pondering the odds of an October hike, after September’s hawkish pivot, so the timing of speeches by influential Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida and Governor Kazuo Ueda in the two days following the Tankan has raised eyebrows.
Nomura analysts surmise it’s been coordinated to potentially prepare the market for tightening, should the Tankan be bullish. If so, care is warranted in the messaging, with the stock market perched at all-time peaks and Japan government bond yields at their highest since 2008.
4/DOVISH TILT LOADING
There’s no shortage of push and pull factors for India’s central bank when it publishes its rates decision on Wednesday, after its first meeting since Washington enforced its punitive tariffs.
There’s the drag from steep U.S. tariffs and higher visa fees, set against government and central bank measures to sustain growth. Indian goods face the highest U.S. import levies in Asia, while a sharp hike in H-1B visa charges has cast a cloud on the IT sector, a key driver of exports, jobs and household spending.
Equities have lagged peers, while the rupee hit a record low recently and is down 3.5% year-to-date, despite the soft dollar. Most economists expect the RBI to hold, though some see room for a 25-basis-point cut. It’s a fine-margin decision for the RBI: load up an insurance cut, or keep powder dry in case of further turbulence ahead.
5/DEAL OR NO DEAL
A duty-free trade agreement between the United States and eligible African nations is set to lapse on September 30, without any clear word from the U.S. government on its future.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act, or AGOA, offers more than 30 African economies a key market for their exports, helping to boost investments and much-needed job creation.
African officials have been trooping to Washington in recent months to push for the extension of the deal, underscoring its importance to countries such as Kenya and South Africa.
However, lobbying efforts have not elicited any formal commitments from U.S. officials, compounding the situation for a region that is already reeling from Trump’s imposition of trade tariffs.
Lesotho, a key AGOA beneficiary, reported Washington could offer a short-term extension of the deal. Many in the region will be hoping the U.S. government will confirm that by the time the deal lapses on Tuesday.
(Graphics by Sumanta Sen, Compiled by Karin Strohecker; Editing by Amanda Cooper and Alex Richardson)
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