A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rocky Swift
Markets like it when central banks can steer economic policy without political meddling, and they prize data that matches reality.
That faith has helped global shares climb to successive record highs this month, but it was shaken again by U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest attack on the independence of the U.S. central bank.
Equity markets in Asia and stock futures in Europe and the U.S. turned lower after Trump declared he was firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over alleged improprieties in obtaining mortgage loans.
Long-term Treasuries fell after the news while shorter-term debt rose, signalling both diminished faith in the long-term credit of the United States and increased assurance that Trump will get the “rocket fuel” Fed rate cuts he’s been after.
Fed Funds futures traders are pricing in 83% odds of a September rate cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Trump, who was last week relieved of the penalty though not a finding of fraud in his own property dealings, said in a letter to Cook that “the American people must be able to have full confidence in the honesty” of those setting policy.
Cook, whose term at the Fed runs to 2038, vowed to stay on, saying the president had no authority to remove her. Indeed, the legality of the move is unclear, but it comes after numerous threats to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Trump lacks the legal authority to fire the Fed chair except “for cause”. That plus the Fed chief’s term expiration in May seem to have tempered his assaults on the central bank for now.
Not so lucky was the Labor Department official who was cashiered this month after delivering jobs data that disappointed Trump.
Apart from the Fed showdown, Trump kept playing the hits, issuing new tariff threats against countries that have digital taxes, another headache for the European Union. Sources said earlier that the Trump administration was considering imposing sanctions on EU or member state officials responsible for implementing the bloc’s landmark Digital Services Act.
The data calendar is light today. Markets remain focused on Nvidia’s quarterly earnings on Wednesday, a critical test of the scorching artificial intelligence trade.
Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:
– U.S. data: durable goods for July, consumer confidence for August
– France consumer confidence for August
– U.S. Treasuries two-year auction
– Earnings: Bank of Montreal, Foot Locker, Kohls
– Riksbank publishes minutes of August 19 monetary policy meeting
(Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
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