NASCAR: Playoffs’ Round of 12 serves up the unpredictable Talladega Superspeedway

With non-Playoff driver Ross Chastain snatching the win at Kansas Speedway to open the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs’ Round of 12, all 12 postseason challengers find themselves searching for a way to clinch their spot in the Round of 8. But this weekend, the competitors will have to face one of the biggest hurdles in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs – Talladega Superspeedway – and its 2.66-miles of asphalt with 33 degrees of banking in the turns in Sunday’s YellaWood 500 at 2 p.m. ET on NBC, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio (Channel 90) – the sixth and final drafting style race of the season.

Hendrick Motorsport’s Willam Byron finished runner-up to Chastain at Kansas last week and in doing so jumped to the top of the Playoff standings, up +34 points on the Round of 8 cutline. Following Byron above the next round’s cutline in the points are Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney (+28), Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell (+28), Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson (+18), Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin (+11), Hendrick Motorsports’ Alex Bowman (+8), Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott (+4) and Team Penske’s Joey Logano (+4). A formidable group of four former series champions.

Sitting on the other side of the Round of 8’s cutoff are 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick (-4), Trackhouse Racing’s Daniel Suarez (-14), Stewart-Haas Racing’s Chase Briscoe (-25) and Team Penske’s Austin Cindric (-29).

Playoff Clinch Scenarios: Talladega Superspeedway

Just two races left for the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff competitors in the Round of 12 to secure their spot in the Round of 8, and plenty of opportunity awaits the postseason contenders as all eight spots are still up for grabs at Talladega Superspeedway this weekend in the YellaWood 500 (Sunday, Oct. 6 at 2 p.m. ET on NBC, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) the fifth race of the 2024 postseason. Below are this weekend’s clinch scenarios.

Already Clinched

No drivers have clinched a spot in the 8-driver field of the next round.

Can Clinch Via Points

If there is a repeat winner or a win by a driver who cannot advance to the next round, the following drivers could clinch by being 56 points above the 8th winless driver in the standings. The same point requirements listed below would hold true if a new win comes from among William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Alex Bowman or Chase Elliott.

• William Byron: Could only clinch with help
• Ryan Blaney: Could only clinch with help
• Christopher Bell: Could only clinch with help
• Kyle Larson: Could only clinch with help
• Denny Hamlin: Could only clinch with help
• Alex Bowman: Could only clinch with help
• Chase Elliott: Could only clinch with help

If there is a new winner from Joey Logano or another winless driver lower in the standings but still eligible to advance to the next round, the following drivers could clinch by being 56 points above the 7th winless driver in the standings.

• William Byron: Could only clinch with help
• Ryan Blaney: Could only clinch with help
• Christopher Bell: Could only clinch with help
• Kyle Larson: Could only clinch with help
• Denny Hamlin: Could only clinch with help
• Alex Bowman: Could only clinch with help

Can Clinch Via Win

The following drivers would clinch on their win alone:

• William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, Daniel Suarez, Chase Briscoe, Austin Cindric 

Playoffs’ Ultimate Wildcard: Talladega Superspeedway

The 2024 season marks the eighth consecutive year Talladega Superspeedway will host the fifth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs (2017-2024) – race No. 31 of the 36-race season.

Talladega is the third different track to host the fifth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs; alongside Charlotte Motor Speedway (2004 – 2014) and Kansas Speedway (2015 – 2016). The 2.66-mile track is the largest paved oval the series competes on with 33 degrees of banking in the turns.

Talladega Superspeedway is one of four tracks that has participated in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs since its inception into the series in 2004, along with Martinsville Speedway, Kansas Speedway and Phoenix Raceway.

Talladega has occupied five different spots on the postseason schedule. The Alabama superspeedway has hosted the third race of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs (2004 – 2005); the fourth race (2006 – 2008 and 2012); the fifth race (2017-2024); the sixth race (2011, 2013 – 2016); and the seventh race (2009 – 2010).

A total of 15 different drivers have won the 20 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff races at Talladega Superspeedway (2004-2024), and six of the 15 are active this weekend.

Five drivers lead the NASCAR Cup Series in Playoff race wins at Talladega Superspeedway with two victories each: Ryan Blaney (2019, 2023), Brad Keselowski (2014, 2017), Clint Bowyer (2010, 2011), Jamie McMurray (2009, 2013) and Joey Logano (2015, 2016).

Four of the six active Talladega Playoff race winners are postseason contenders this year – Chase Elliott (2022), Denny Hamlin (2020), Ryan Blaney (2019, 2023) and Joey Logano (2015, 2016). *Current Playoff contenders are bolded in chart below.

During the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Era (2004-Present), only once has the winner of the Talladega Superspeedway Playoff race gone on to win the title in the same season – Ryan Blaney (2023).

The worst finish in a NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Talladega Superspeedway by a driver that went on to win the title that same season was 37th, by Kyle Larson in 2021.

Six times a non-Playoff driver has won the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Talladega Superspeedway: 2005, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013 and 2021.

• In 2005, Dale Jarrett won the Playoff race at Talladega; he was 14th in points.
• In 2006, Brian Vickers won the Playoff race at Talladega; he was 16th in points.
• In 2009, Jamie McMurray won the Playoff race at Talladega; he was 22nd in points.
• In 2011, Clint Bowyer won the Playoff race at Talladega; he was 13th in points.
• In 2013, Jamie McMurray won the Playoff race at Talladega; he was 14th in points.
• In 2021, Bubba Wallace won the Playoff race at Talladega; he was 21st in points.

Playoff Race No. 5: Diving into the Cup Playoffs’ midway point

The NASCAR Cup Series is reaching the midway point of the postseason, and the fifth race of the Playoffs can be a crucial moment in a competitor’s championship run.

Heading into this weekend, a total of 15 different drivers have won the fifth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.

At Talladega on Sunday, six of the 15 drivers that have won the fifth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs are entered in the Cup race.

Four of the six active drivers that have won the fifth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs are currently competing in the Playoffs this weekend – Chase Elliott (2022 Talladega), Denny Hamlin (2021 Talladega), Ryan Blaney (2019 and 2023 Talladega) and Joey Logano (2015 Kansas).

NASCAR Hall of Famer Jimmie Johnson leads the NASCAR Cup Series in wins in the fifth race of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs with three victories (2004, 2005, 2009 – all at Charlotte Motor Speedway).

RFK Racing’s Brad Keselowski (2013 Charlotte and 2017 Talladega) and Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney (2019 and 2023 at Talladega) lead all active drivers in wins in the fifth race of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs with two victories each. *Current Playoff contenders are bolded in chart below.

Three times the winner of the fifth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs (2004-2023) has gone on to win the championship later that same season: 2009, 2014 and 2023.

In 2009, Jimmie Johnson won the fifth race in the Playoffs from the pole at Charlotte Motor Speedway and then went on to win his fourth consecutive NASCAR Cup Series title – it was his third of four wins in the 2009 postseason.

In 2014, Kevin Harvick won the fifth race in the Playoffs from the seventh starting position at Charlotte Motor Speedway and went on to win his first career NASCAR Cup Series title – it was his first of three wins during the 2014 postseason.

In 2023, Ryan Blaney won the fifth race in the Playoffs from the 10th starting spot at Talladega Superspeedway and then went on to win his first NASCAR Cup Series title – it was his first of two wins in the 2023 postseason. 

Three times a non-Playoff driver has won the fifth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs: 2010, 2013 and 2021.

• In 2010, Jamie McMurray won the fifth race in the Playoffs at Charlotte; he was 14th in points.
• In 2013, Brad Keselowski won the fifth race in Playoffs at Charlotte; he was 16th in points.
• In 2021, Bubba Wallace won the Playoff race at Talladega; he was 21st in points.

Sweet Home Alabama: NASCAR Cup Series at Talladega Superspeedway

Since opening the gates at Talladega Superspeedway, it has been deemed one of the most daunting tracks on the schedule and this weekend’s YellaWood 500 (Sunday, Oct. 6 at 2 p.m. ET on NBC, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) looks to be another fantastic opportunity for some close side-by-side drafting competition.

In total there have been 110 NASCAR Cup Series races at Talladega Superspeedway, one Cup event in 1969, and two races per year since 1970. Among the 110 Cup events, the track has hosted 20 Playoff races in the NASCAR Cup Series (2004-2023).

Overall, 48 different drivers have qualified on the pole at Talladega Superspeedway, 24 of the 48 have done it multiple times, and seven of the 48 NASCAR Cup Series pole winners at Talladega are active this weekend. Three of the seven active Talladega Cup pole winners are Playoff contenders – Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin.

NASCAR Hall of Famer Bill Elliott leads the NASCAR Cup Series in poles at Talladega Superspeedway with eight poles (1985 sweep, 1986 sweep, 1987 sweep, spring 1990 and fall 1993). Chase Elliott (2016, 2019) and Christopher Bell (2022 sweep) lead all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in poles at Talladega with two each.

The 110 Cup races at Talladega have also produced 52 different NASCAR Cup Series race winners at the 2.66-mile track. NASCAR Hall of Famer Dale Earnhardt leads the series in wins at Talladega with 10 victories (1983, 1984, 1990 sweep, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1999 sweep and 2000).

This weekend, 10 of the 52 NASCAR Cup Series race winners at Talladega Superspeedway are active, led by Brad Keselowski with six wins at the 2.66-mile track (2009, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2021). Of the 10 active Talladega winners entered this weekend, five are current Playoff drivers – Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick. Reddick is the most recent winner taking the checkered flag earlier this season and Blaney is the defending winner of the Talladega Playoff race last season.

This weekend’s YellaWood 500 will be broken up into three stages the first two stages will be 60 laps each and final stage will be 68 laps. Interestingly, 21 different drivers have won a stage this season, the most since stage racing was introduced in 2017.

No practice this weekend. On-track activity for the NASCAR Cup Series begins with Busch Light Pole Qualifying on Saturday, October 5 at 1:30 p.m. ET and will broadcast on the USA Network, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.

Playoff Bubble: Round of 12 provides plenty of volatility

While the unpredictability of the close quarters racing at Talladega Superspeedway, or the multiple twists and turns of the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL are enough to keep the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff teams up at night, but they should find some solace in knowing it could be those same track attributes that help get them to Victory Lane over these next two weekends.

Since the inception of the ‘elimination-style’ format in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs in 2014, the driver that wins at Talladega Superspeedway in the postseason has clinched a needed spot in the next round in eight of the 10 postseason races held (2014-2023).

Joey Logano in 2015, is the lone winner at Talladega since 2014, that had already clinched his spot in the next round prior to competing at the 2.66-mile track – Logano swept the Round of 12 in 2015 winning all three races that season (Charlotte, Kansas, Talladega).

Then in 2021, for the first-time since the ‘elimination-style’ format was introduced in 2014, a non-Playoff driver (Bubba Wallace) won the Talladega Superspeedway NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race.

Since 2014, six of the 10 Talladega Playoff races have been won by drivers below the Round of 8 cutline heading into the weekend – 2014, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022 and 2023.

This weekend, Tyler Reddick (ninth), Daniel Suarez (10th), Chase Briscoe (11th) and Austin Cindric (12th) find themselves south of the NASCAR Cup Series Round of 8 cutline as they head into the Playoff race at Talladega Superspeedway.

Drivers below the Round of 8 cutline at Talladega Superspeedway:

Tyler Reddick (No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota)

• One win, one top five, three top 10s
• Average Finish of 19.000, 20th-best
• Average Running Position of 18.931, 23rd-best
• Driver Rating of 67.7, 26th-best
• 701 Laps in the Top 15 (42.6%), 20th-most
• Most recent winner at Talladega, but it’s his only top-15 finish in the Next Gen car at the track 

Daniel Suárez (No. 99 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet)

• Four top 10s
• Average Finish of 19.867, 25th-best
• Average Running Position of 19.721, 27th-best
• Driver Rating of 67.3, 27th-best
• 1,088 Laps in the Top 15 (39.1%), 23rd-most
• Has finished in the top-10 in three of his five starts in the Next Gen car at Talladega

Chase Briscoe (No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford)

• One top five, two top 10s
• Average Finish of 14.571, fourth-best
• Average Running Position of 23.684, 37th-best
• Driver Rating of 66.0, 30th-best
• 343 Laps in the Top 15 (27.3%), 33rd-most
• Has finished inside the top-15 in six of his seven Talladega starts, has more top 15s at Talladega than any other track 

Austin Cindric (No. 2 Team Penske Ford)

• One top five, two top 10s
• Average Finish of 17.000, 15th-best
• Average Running Position of 16.512, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 78.2, 12th-best
• 467 Laps in the Top 15 (49.3%), 10th-most
• Leads all drivers in points earned and laps led on drafting tracks in 2024, finished fifth in this race last season