Polish industrial output rises by 0.5% y/y in June, above forecast

GDANSK/WARSAW (Reuters) – Poland’s industrial output rose by 0.5% in June, better than the 6.9% decline forecast by analysts, who said the statistic office data suggest the economy may overcome the coronavirus crisis faster than initially expected.

The largest economy in the eastern European Union has been hit hard by the pandemic, with the finance ministry expecting gross domestic product to fall around 4% in 2020, but economists expect it to make a quick recovery compared with many others.

“This is a big positive surprise … This could be a sign that the economy could be faster rebounding from the bottom,” said Piotr Bielski, director of the economic analysis department at Santander Bank Polska.

Bielski also said that the output data is another positive surprise in June, on top of wages and employment, which also came above forecasts.

“In the coming days, we will also see the construction and retail sales data, but if this goes on, it may turn out that the … return to normal will be faster and stronger than we thought,” Bielski said.

Poland, which has reported 40,383 coronavirus cases as of Monday, started easing its lockdown in May, allowing shopping centres to reopen at the beginning of the month. It then gradually opened restaurants, hairdressers and some other services.

(Reporting by Gdansk Newsroom, Anna Koper in Warsaw; writing by Agnieszka Barteczko; editing by Larry King)