I’ll come clean, I can take the heat. When the 2019 NFL season began, I looked at the Green Bay Packers and thought: A rookie Head Coach, a new offensive system, a set-in-his-ways superstar quarterback, four suddenly very rich 25 and 26 year old unrestricted free agents with spotty track records and yet another top heavy defensive draft.
This might take a while I thought, some improvement this year and hopefully better days ahead. I predicted an 8-8 season and with a little luck, maybe contend for a Wild Card.
A funny thing happened on the way to the NFC Championship Game. It’s the Packers who will play the San Francisco 49ers for right to play in Super Bowl LIV in Miami.
I’ve written plenty about how this team meshed under Matt LaFleur, how Aaron Rodgers bought it, how Za’Darius and Preston Smith led both on the field and in the locker room and how this year’s group found 14 different ways to win in 17 starts.
Can they do it one more time at Levi’s Stadium as seven point underdogs Sunday afternoon?
Why not? 14 other NFC teams can’t because they aren’t playing in this game.
It won’t be easy as the 49ers avoided catastrophic injuries this year and rocketed from 4 victories in 2018 to a 13-3, Western Division winning season and the conference’s number one seed.
Here’s how I see the matchups.
When the Packers have the ball.
A line from Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett has stuck in my head all week. When talking about what his unit needs to do against one of the league’s best defensive teams, he said, “We have to be quick and clean.”
San Francisco invested five number one draft picks, all taken higher than 18th overall and three inside the top five over the past seven years to make the defensive front the team’s foundation. That group overwhelmed the Packers in November. Having all five offensive linemen back will help. Bryan Bulaga lasted only 9 snaps in the first meeting. If Aaron Jones can’t get going on the ground again, LaFleur will have to find ways to get him touches on the flanks or with screens. He means that much to the offense. Aaron Rodgers won’t have much time to have downfield routes develop and with expected extra attention on Davante Adams, someone, anyone has to step up and make big plays. That could be Jimmy Graham who did just that against Seattle but I have a feeling a Jake Kumerow or Marquez Valdes-Scantling have waited all year for a moment. This could be the weekend.
If the Niners win in the trenches, their defense can become dominant (tops in the NFC, NFL’s best vs the pass), but if that front gets neutralized, they’re as vulnerable as any team (4 straight teams put up 26 plus against them in the final month). They got a couple of key role players back against Minnesota and locked down the Vikings in their playoff victory.
Rodgers must be quick and clean, stay in manageable down and distances and the offense will have a fighting chance.
When the 49ers have the ball.
After giving up 37 points in November, the defensive leaders called a players only meeting and the agenda could have been titled, “What the hell are we doing?”
They looked over a cut up of all the explosive plays they’d given up so far this season and there were plenty of them. They learned the linebackers were handling responsibilities the secondary thought they were assigned to and vice-versa. The meeting pulled the group together and the on field communication improved.
It’ll have to be very good in the rematch.
So where do you start with Kyle Shanahan’s offense that parades all kinds of motion and misdirection? “Trust your eyes”, Tramon Williams told me. Don’t let the window dressing lead to chasing routes that aren’t there.
I believe the Packers have to start by controlling the San Francisco three headed monster running game. They handed the ball off more than any other team in the league this year and it set up Jimmy Garappolo’s passing game.
Deebo Samuel is super quick on the perimeter, Emmanuel Sanders was a really good trade acquisition but let’s not kid ourselves, the biggest explosions come from All-Pro tight end George Kittle. Should the Packers beat ’em up the way Wayne Simmons did to Brent Jones in the 1990’s? Or do they get Raven Greene active this week and try and blanket him in coverage with linebackers abnd safeties? They’re gonna have to try something.
By not allowing the ground game to get rolling, the ball will be in Garoppolo’s hands more often and that may be the key for the Pack.
Mike Holmgren’s Packers always had the upper hand against the 49ers, stunning the defending champs in 1995, beating them in the Lambeau mud on their way to the Super Bowl in 1996 and making it back to back NFC crowns at Candlestick in 1997. Holmlgren’s final game as coach had the Niner’s get their revenge as Terrell Owebns caught Steve Young’s last second TD pass. Even Mike Sherman’s Packers got over San Francisco once.
But Mike McCarthty’s Packers ran into Colin Kaepernick in consecutive post-seasons and that didn’t go very well.
Now it’s a rookie coach, with a veteran quarterback and an enthusiastic bunch of believers.
I’m just not convinced they’ll have enough to get this done on the road. A much better, tighter contest this time, but I still like San Francisco to prevail, 27-23.
