By Yukun Zhang and Joe Cash
BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s export growth likely slowed significantly in April, as shipments to the United States were dampened by Trump’s tariffs and uncertainty over whether the world’s two largest economies can strike a deal to ease the trade tensions.
Outbound shipments were expected to have risen by 1.9% year-on-year in value terms last month, according to the median forecasts of 32 economists polled by Reuters, slumping from a 12.4% jump in March that was buoyed by producers making a last-ditch effort to ship their wares before the tariffs took effect.
Imports are forecast to have slumped further, down 5.9% over the same period and from a 4.3% decline in March.
April trade data – scheduled to be released on Friday around 0300 GMT – should shed light on the immediate toll of the ongoing trade war on China’s $18.7 trillion economy.
Beijing has largely relied on exports to shore up its fragile economic recovery underway since the end of the pandemic and only began to take steps to boost domestic demand more earnestly late last year.
Since taking office in January, U.S. President Donald Trump has hiked levies on imports from China to 145%, in addition to those he imposed on many Chinese goods during his first term and the duties levied on Beijing by the Biden administration.
China hit back by imposing export curbs on some rare earth elements and raising tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%, in addition to extra levies on select products including soybeans and liquefied natural gas.
Officials from the two countries will meet in Switzerland on Saturday to start trade negotiations, potentially a step towards de-escalation.
A breakdown of the poll numbers indicates that economists are divided on how Trump’s tariffs would impact China’s overall exports last month, with estimates ranging from a 7.0% growth to a 3.5% drop.
Data for the official purchasing managers’ index (PMI), released on April 30, showed that China’s factory activity contracted at the fastest pace in 16 months in April.
Nomura analysts in an April 28 report said that the U.S. accounted for 20.6% of China’s total goods exports in 2024, when re-exports from Hong Kong and rerouting through other locations are included.
They estimated that around 2.2% of China’s GDP is directly hit by tariffs, and that China might lose roughly 1.1% of GDP in the near term, assuming the country’s exports to the U.S. would be halved.
China’s policymakers on Wednesday rolled out a package of monetary stimulus measures, including liquidity injection and policy rate cuts, in a bid to soften the economic damage caused by the trade war.
China’s April trade surplus is forecast at $89 billion, down from $102.64 billion in March.
(Reporting by Yukun Zhang and Joe Cash; Polling by Devayani Sathyan and Pranoy Krishna in Bengaluru and Jing Wang in Shanghai; Editing by Saad Sayeed)
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